By Tom Bandy
Many of you may have read the Easter opinion column by Ross Douthat in the New York Times: “It’s Easter 2050. Here’s What American Religion Looks Like”. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/30/opinion/easter-religion-america.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare. It’s a good article, and I have been reflecting on it from the point of view of demographic and lifestyle change. The writer predicts that American religion will morph into several groups, but in a general background of increasing indifference to traditional institutional religion and growing interest in mysticism and spirituality.
The first group the author calls “neo-traditionalists”. They are “liturgical and doctrinally conservative Christians” who are highly educated and upwardly mobile, with larger traditionally structured families, often living in large cities or college towns. They are often professionals who are very civic-minded. In MissionInsite parlance, these households are often associated with C13 Philanthropic Sophisticates, J34 Suburban Sophisticates, and H26 Progressive Assortment.
These are often well represented among United Methodist boards and trustees, and non-profit boards for education, social service, and health care. If you track their migration with thematic mapping, you see they are relatively stable, long-term residents. I think one of the biggest challenges they face is that, while they are open to cultural diversity, they shy away form being culturally immersive. They tend to be more analytical than empathic, resolving conflicts by policy change rather than building intimate relationships.
The second group the author calls “mere Christians” (in contrast to denominationally committed Christians). They are “middle class and suburban, with fewer advanced degrees and extra kids”, and tend to gravitate toward independent churches that may be theologically conservative, but less liturgical and “not doctrinally intense”. In MissionInsite parlance, they are often associated with C14 Boomers and Boomerangs, D18 Suburban Nightlife, and L41 Booming and Consuming.
These are often participants in larger, more multi-racial United Methodist churches or smaller new church developments and are active (but short-term) volunteers. They are more likely to migrate away from urban settings in search of a better quality of life and have shorter residencies in a community. I think they are often challenged to distinguish Christian values from cultural trends and focus bedrock beliefs amid stressful circumstances. Personal interests tend to shape lifestyle more than spiritual practices.
The third group the author calls “liberal Christians”. He makes the profound observation that “liberal” Christianity will always endure “as long as there are conservative Christianities to inspire rebellion and disillusionment.” So, while they may merge and manage institutions, they do so to sharpen moral critique and grow spiritual depth. In MissionInsite parlance, they are often associated with B07 Across the ages, E19 Consummate Consumers, F22 Fast Track Couples.
These often connect with United Methodist outreach and creative “fresh expressions”, and value theological reflection through small affinity groups. They may be more physically and virtually mobile with their attention divided between local, national, and global affairs. I think they are often challenged to translate words into actions and sustain commitments long term, and struggle to connect Sunday worship with work, family, and leisure, in a more holistic spiritual life.
The fourth group the author calls “all-American pagans”. This is intended as a “catch all for the emergent post-Christian forms of religious faith”. I think the author is correct suggesting grassroot spiritualities will be an ever more potent influence that provides “spiritual scripts” for public opinions – especially expressed via social media. This is not really a “group” as such, because all 71 lifestyle segments in America are connecting with it. It influences all ages, incomes, and demographic contexts. It is perhaps most visible among urban Group O Singles and Starters and Group K Significant Singles, but also among rural group N Pastoral Pride.
These often connect with United Methodist churches through social service volunteerism, but also through programs related to the arts (music, painting and photography, architecture, video gaming, etc.). The influence comes through relationships (in-person and on-line) and participation in fellowships. They are not necessarily young. Indeed, they do not easily fit any demographic category. Church people often overlook them, but more churches are connecting through inclusive, informal, conversational gatherings like “Dinner Church”.
The fifth group the author calls “fast-growing outsiders”. He means organized, often exclusive religious movements beyond traditional norms (Mormons, Amish, or specific groups within Judaism, Islam, etc.). But I think this net can be cast wider to recognize the growing number of church members dropping out and associating with other established religions. Again, these can include all different lifestyle segments, but perhaps most visibly among Group H Bourgeois Melting Pot, Group P Cultural Connections, and Group R Aspirational Fusion.
If we are speaking of “outsiders”, it might be worth recognizing another sub-group that I might call “Inside-Outsiders”. While American Protestantism and Catholicism, oriented to western European experience, may be declining, the former recipients of their evangelism and outreach are now entering America with considerable strength from Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, and Pacific Rim. United Methodists often connect with them in the course of re-purposing church properties for use by immigrant and refugee Christians.
Finally, the author describes the “wild card” in American culture as the “intelligentsia” (progressive intellectuals, humanists, etc.). He asks: “Can an arid and implausible atheism endure in a much weirder American future?” This is perhaps the greatest challenge to the institutional church. Even active church members are unconsciously and/or intentionally customizing personal spiritualities. “Personal religion” is the fastest growing religious phenomena that challenges decades of secularism.
This growing spiritual diversity reveals a trend in ministry that has been unfolding for several decades. We are moving from long-term programs (aimed at stable lifestyle segments) … to short-term programs (aimed at migrating lifestyle segments … to opportunistic relationship-building aimed at highly mobile lifestyle segments. Similarly, we are moving from clergy dependency for leadership … to staff dependency … to lay leadership and team-based innovation for ministry. As 2050 comes closer, we will rely more on leadership integrity, spiritual credibility, and teamwork than denominational identity, professional expertise, and administration to sustain the church.